I've been thinking about prediction. Mostly in the context of M being almost 2 years old and asking/demanding more things.

When she reminds me of my water bottle by pointing and saying "dada bottle" or wants to throw away a granola bar wrapper by pointing and saying "trash" it feels to me like a cross between a prediction and a request. She's happy to see the action taken because it fulfills her prediction. And if she can make accurate predictions about the world that means she understands the world. (This is all my speculation.)

I also try and predict things (in my head) to check my understanding of them. I tink that's a commonly recommended anxiety strategy to write down worries and then check in if your predictions came true (they almost always do not), and then try and adjust your predictions based off that.

I'm also both interested (and skeptical) of some of the ideas around prediction markets - I do think that bringing money into a prediction often shifts how people think about it. From something they want to happen or identify with to a more analytical attempt to figure out what will happen. And also a more real assessment of risk - a lot of things people predict are never revisited - you forget the ones that didn't happen and only remember the ones that did.

I think checking your predictions is a good way to see if you understand a system - you do have to also keep in mind probability and not get thrown off when improbable things happen.